People saying that Mossad messed up by getting caught on camera never really made sense to me. They clearly knew they were going to be on camera, and they had to have known that that footage would be reviewed in the future. Since they knew they were going to be on camera but did it anyway, it pretty clearly was a risk they calculated and decided was an acceptable payoff. Currently it looks like nearly 30 people were directly involved, and authorities have nothing to show for it but the arrest of an accomplice or two, and month old rumors of another single arrest. They might have pictures of the people involved, but it hasn't helped them actually do anything about it.
As for political fallout... what political fallout? They got some bad press on the evening news but do you think they actually give a damn about that? Other countries sent a political message scolded them for using fake passports, and they sent a pretty clear political message: that they are willing to kill anyone they don't like, and no amount of cameras will stop them.
I really have a hard time seeing the people who planned this doing anything other than patting themselves on the back for a job well done.
This was very much seen as a fiasco in Israel, by the general public and reportedly by Mossad itself. Mossad director Meir Dagan had to step down recently, almost certainly as result of the Dubai debacle.
Yes, but like I said that was just collateral damage and predicted. Mossad knew the passports would be traced back to the UK. They took the PR hit in order to achieve the greater goal.
Oh, I totally agree-- this was the point of my earlier comment about it being tactically "good enough" but not perfect. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that they knew all about the CCTV coverage in the hotel. I also think you're spot on about the blowback on the British passports. It was all calculated risk. In general, the article underestimates the technical savvy of Mossad-- see Stuxnet.
Going to take a dive here from Mossad fanboys, but Stuxnet can just as well (if not more likely) be a U.S. product, precisely due to its technical sophistication.
More likely a combination of both: Mossad for the details of what is inside Iran's program and deploying the worm, and the US for the technical skills to build it.
Israeli software skills are excellent. Of all the assets the US could provide, that's one Israel doesn't need and likely wouldn't accept. The US could provide electronic surveillance: locations of people, details of local police operations, satellite photos, etc.
While technically it can be done by anyone in the world, it takes certain thriving technology culture to ensure that enough smart people penetrate the ranks of employees in government bureaucracies. Israel's overall IT scene is non-remarkable, not any more than one of Sweden or Greece.
The USA on the other hand, has decades-long successful track record of industrial sabotage involving computers, and NSA alone probably employs more talent than Mossad could ever afford to.
Israel doesn't just recruit from Israel. They recruit from Jews internationally.
This is a major part of their strength. How many brilliant Jewish software people live in the USA? Those are the people Israel would recruit, along with their homegrown talent.
Having said that I agree that the NSA would be more qualified than Israel at creating Stuxnet.
I hate to burst your bubble but as someone who's gone through stuxnet with a fine toothcomb more than once, there's nothing (as expected with decently written malware) that is directly attributable to a single country or intelligence service.
Stuxnet has been heavily sensationalised by the media, who like the idea of intrigue more than the reality that this is a (predominantly) untargeted (it hit more targets in India than Iran when I was looking at it) but highly sophisticated piece of malware, but nothing that couldn't have been written by a decent pen test team in a few months.
Is it a CNE (Computer Network Exploitation) act? Possibly, and the presence of Scada exploits indicates the possibility. But bear in mind that there are CANVAS (http://www.immunitysec.com/) packs that have 0day SCADA exploits in them and they aren't written buy governments.
As for political fallout... what political fallout? They got some bad press on the evening news but do you think they actually give a damn about that? Other countries sent a political message scolded them for using fake passports, and they sent a pretty clear political message: that they are willing to kill anyone they don't like, and no amount of cameras will stop them.
I really have a hard time seeing the people who planned this doing anything other than patting themselves on the back for a job well done.